Quarterly Essay 68 Without America by Hugh White

Author:Hugh White
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: Schwartz Publishing Pty. Ltd

IN THE NEW ASIA

Australia is going to have a more independent foreign policy in the new Asia – more independent of Washington, that is – whether it likes it or not. Many people welcome this, because they think depending less on America is a sign of greater national maturity. But that is itself, I think, a little immature. There is nothing inherently wrong with depending on others, as long as it works. Depending on America to keep Asia stable and Australia secure has worked very well for Australia for a long time. The benefits of dependence have far outweighed the costs. If America could remain the uncontested dominant power in Asia in future, there would be no good reason to step away from it. But that is not going to happen. In fact, the question of whether we should seek more independence by stepping away from America is irrelevant, because America is stepping away from Asia, and that means it is stepping away from us. Independence is not an appealing option to choose, but an unavoidable and uncomfortable fact to be managed. We are going to be on our own.

But won’t America still be there to support Australia even if it pulls back from Asia? Many people think it would, because of the way we talk of the alliance as based on enduring bonds of history, culture and values, rather than just as a convenient, useful alignment of strategic interests. This image of the alliance as rooted in our identity is reflected in the way Turnbull spoke of it when announcing his commitment to support Donald Trump on North Korea. He spoke of Australia and America standing “shoulder to shoulder” and being “joined at the hip.”

Alas, international relations don’t work that way. There are no examples of alliances – real alliances involving real commitments and costs, which are the only kind that matter – surviving on sentiment alone, without clear shared interests and objectives. Our interests and objectives in Asia have aligned closely with America’s in recent decades, but that won’t last as America’s strategic engagement in Asia dwindles. We have seen this happen before. Our alliance with Britain evaporated overnight when it withdrew strategically from Asia in the early 1970s, despite our even closer links of history, language and values. Ministerial speeches larded with sentimental clichés won’t preserve the alliance once the practical strategic purpose is past.

Policy-makers are reluctant to face this because they have convinced themselves that Australia simply cannot survive without the alliance. They often say, for example, that it is essential to our defence, because the need to fight alongside one another seamlessly means our forces are inseparably intertwined with those of the US. It is certainly true that our forces are much more intertwined today than they were in the 1980s and 1990s, because we have chosen to develop them for coalition rather than independent operations. And it is true, of course, that we would have to spend a lot more on defence if we cannot depend on America as we have done for so long.

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